El Niño: What is it, and how can livestock producers prepare for its effects?

The Bureau of Meteorology (The Bureau) has officially declared that both an El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event are currently underway for Australia. The long-range forecast provided by The Bureau has predicted below median rainfall for much of northern, southern, and western Australia, as well as unusually warm temperatures for most of Australia from November through to January.

What does this mean for Australia’s climate?

In the past, El Niño events have been strongly correlated with reduced rainfall and droughts for Australia’s eastern states, especially for Queensland and New South Wales. However, they do not always guarantee a drought will take place. Winter and spring rainfall are typically the most severely impacted.

The Bureau has reported that the current positive IOD continues to strengthen and is likely to last until at least December. Positive IODs typically bring drier winter and spring conditions for central and south-eastern Australia, and we have already seen below average winter rainfall this year for Australia as a whole.

Alone, these two climactic drivers have a strong influence on Australia’s rainfall patterns, particularly over the spring and summer period. When acting together, we can expect to see an intensification and wider distribution of the drying and warming effects.

The likely Impacts for livestock production

In their August statement on monetary policy, The Reserve Bank of Australia has forecasted a decline in rural export volumes due to the deteriorating growing conditions brought on by El Niño, coupled by an upward pressure on food prices. We are also seeing a decline in some livestock prices, particularly the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) which dropped this month to its lowest point since late 2014. This price drop is largely due to elevated supply, as well as the warm, dry outlook for spring and summer as forecasted by The Bureau.

Management practices – what you can do now and what you can plan to do

Now is the perfect time for producers to plan and prepare for the changing conditions that lie ahead. For grazing enterprises, consider the following:

Reducing grazing pressure on your pastures by selling or agisting stock. If a drought were to occur, agistment options will become limited and more expensive.
Prepare for the possible requirement of stock containment areas or yards. The main purpose for using these are to preserve soil and pasture quality during dry times, as well as to better monitor animal health and feed intake.
Provide adequate shade and shelter to keep your animals comfortable and prevent heat stress in extreme conditions. This will also reduce the water requirements of your stock in hot weather.
- Temporary or construction shade structures can be made from materials such as shade cloth and corrugated iron.
- Large shade trees and shelter belts are permanent solutions.
- Consider the likelihood of livestock crowding the shelters and plan accordingly.
Have a drought plan in place.

Biosecurity considerations

Parasite Management

The recent La Niña periods of higher-than-average rainfall saw favourable conditions for parasites including liver fluke, fly strike and barber’s pole worm as well as vector-borne diseases such as Japanese encephalitis (JE). If dry conditions continue to worsen then livestock may also be more susceptible to parasites due to impaired immunity (from poor nutrition and/or drought-related stress), and increasingly crowded conditions around shade, feed, and water sources. Parasite management practices such as faecal worm egg counts and strategic drenching should be prioritised, even when the overall pasture parasite loads are reduced due to the dry weather. More information on the seasonal management of parasites affecting cattle, sheep and goats can be found on ParaBoss.

Disease Management

Dwindling water sources can also lead to an increase in competition for water among wild and feral animals, bringing them into closer proximity with livestock and increasing the chance of disease transmission. Take the time now to check your fencing and consider management controls to safeguard your water sources and your livestock from unwanted contact with wild and feral animals. If your livestock require supplementary feeding, remember to abide by the ruminant feed ban by not feeding anything containing restricted animal material (RAM) to ruminants. Always check for the RAM statement when purchasing commercial feed.

Other diseases to be aware of, particularly during the upcoming 2023-24 summer, are pneumonia in lambs and pink eye in cattle. Pneumonia can occur in all sheep; however, summer pneumonia is frequently seen in weaners. While this condition is caused by a mixture of host, environmental and pathogen factors, dry and dusty conditions are a common causative agent. Pink eye is a contagious eye disease in cattle, and outbreaks are often seen in summer due to stress, increased fly activity (flies are a vector for spreading pink eye causing bacteria), damage to the eye from dust, and increased transmission due to crowding around feed, water, and shade. There is a vaccine available for pink eye, however this must be given prior to the high-risk season.

Dry and dusty conditions also pose an increased risk of Q fever, a zoonotic disease spread to humans by animals such as cattle, sheep, and goats. Ensure that all staff, particularly new workers, are vaccinated against Q fever when working with livestock.

Further information and resources:

Economic Outlook | Statement on Monetary Policy – August 2023 | RBA

Cattle Insights October 2023 | Rural Bank

Worms on Pasture: Sheep and Goats – WormBoss

Market outlook after El Niño and positive IOD announced | Meat & Livestock Australia (mla.com.au)

Climate Driver Update (bom.gov.au)

Pinkeye | Meat & Livestock Australia (mla.com.au)

Farm Biosecurity

For state-specific drought resources:

NSW: Drought plan template (nsw.gov.au), Drought – Local Land Services (nsw.gov.au)

SA: Managing drought – PIRSA

VIC: Sheep-drought-feeding-guide.pdf (agriculture.vic.gov.au), Beef Cattle Drought Feeding Guide – Word Format | Feeding Livestock | Agriculture Victoria